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	<title>BN Magazine</title>
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		<title>Issue 11</title>
		<link>http://bnmagazine.co.uk/index.php/2012/05/15/issue-11/</link>
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		<pubDate>Tue, 15 May 2012 16:41:08 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>BN Editorial</dc:creator>
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		<title>Gunery Media</title>
		<link>http://bnmagazine.co.uk/index.php/2012/04/12/gunery-media/</link>
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		<pubDate>Thu, 12 Apr 2012 14:21:56 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>BN Editorial</dc:creator>
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		<title>Personal HR</title>
		<link>http://bnmagazine.co.uk/index.php/2012/03/09/personal-hr/</link>
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		<pubDate>Fri, 09 Mar 2012 14:21:16 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>BN Editorial</dc:creator>
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		<description><![CDATA[What is actually a good ‘Human Resources Model’? Why do we need human resources agencies and human resources specialist in today’s world?  Contemporary human resource management takes its origin in America. They were the first to understand that companies need to set up Human Resource Departments into their organisation or use the services of external [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><em>What is actually a good ‘Human Resources Model’? Why do we need human resources agencies and human resources specialist in today’s world?  </em></p>
<p>Contemporary human resource management takes its origin in America. They were the first to understand that companies need to set up Human Resource Departments into their organisation or use the services of external agencies. Back in the day, employers invested all their money in new technologies and space for their factories. After they tried everything to optimise their business, working hours, work systems they came to realise that the people are the source of the success. The most important element that makes a difference is to use the best suitable and qualified human resources in the right time and position. If the business owners do not use the right person for the right position or do not care about employee rights and work conditions, they will not success.</p>
<p>To perform well in the global economy, you have to spend as much time, effort and money for your human resources strategy, as you spend on your company strategy. It is even truer for medium-sized businesses. Many companies rely on their accountants to deal with their employees’ needs and they believe that this is sufficient for the future of their business. However, the most important aspect is ‘selection and placement’ and ‘employees motivation’. Many companies have a high turn over, which means a waste of time and money.</p>
<p>Human Resources require expertise. When you feel sick you visit your GP to get better and you do not want to spend your money on dangerous treatment methods. When your car breaks down, you take it to the garage because you do not want to drive a vehicle that is unsafe on the road. Human Resource services are no less important than a doctor or car repairer. Like everything else, human resources need to be addressed by experienced specialists.</p>
<p>You may not have these specialists in your business or your HR department might struggle to fill some special positions. This is why PRONET HR is here to fill the gap between your business and your human resources needs. We do selection; placement, budgeting, human resources strategy and incentive plan for the employees. And because we understand how companies work and what they need to evolve, we can engineer specific solutions for any business.</p>
<p>Furthermore, many recruitment agencies do not really meet you or your candidates, our first step is to visit you in your work place. The reason for this is to be transparent with each other. The second step is the selection and placement process. We prepare a CV search list. We have more than 15,000 people in our network. We use our network and our database and we also advertise on career websites. For the latter we use different sites for different positions to optimise the results. After we have determined our short list, we conduct a telephone interview with the candidates. We then call successful candidates for face-to-face interviews. We will then check the candidate’s legalities. Once the check is cleared, we cross check our candidates from at least two references. We also give those reference reports to our clients. In the final step we will arrange for a meeting between you and the candidates. We also provide free consultancy services for a year for each position.</p>
<p>We spend the biggest part of our adult life in our work place. We spend our time, money, effort and hope, making plans and projects. PRONET HR is here to help carry those plans and work in a trustworthy manner. Success is driven by innovation and innovation happens when the right people meet and work together. We are happy to help you reach your potential and make sure that it stays at the top of its game.</p>
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		<title>Looking UP: Vertical Farming</title>
		<link>http://bnmagazine.co.uk/index.php/2012/03/02/looking-up-vertical-farming-2/</link>
		<comments>http://bnmagazine.co.uk/index.php/2012/03/02/looking-up-vertical-farming-2/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 02 Mar 2012 16:59:42 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>BN Editorial</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Art & Culture]]></category>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://bnmagazine.co.uk/?p=841</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[This rise in population will need an area the size of Brazil in order to feed everybody if traditional farming practices continue as they are practiced today. By the year 2050 it is expected that the human population will increase by 3 billion and nearly 80% of the earth’s population will reside in urban areas. [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p style="text-align: left;" align="center"><em>This rise in population will need an area the size of Brazil in order to feed everybody if traditional farming practices continue as they are practiced today.</em></p>
<p>By the year 2050 it is expected that the human population will increase by 3 billion and nearly 80% of the earth’s population will reside in urban areas. Currently over 800million hectares are committed to soil based agriculture, which is around 38% of the total landmass of the Earth.</p>
<p>Agriculture has the biggest impact on the environment of any human activity. Key consequences of agriculture include the pollution of water, soil and air, land and habitat conversion, soil degradation, and huge demand for water and fossil fuels. Agriculture draws 70% of the water we use in the world – and in some countries the figure is more than 90%. Freshwater is becoming increasingly scarce with the livestock sector accounting for nearly one tenth of global human water use.</p>
<p><strong>Farms for urban areas</strong></p>
<p>Colombia University’s Professor Dickson Despommier created the Vertical Farm Project as a possible solution to increasing pressures on land and resources. The concept of the vertical farm is to grow food upwards in tall buildings and skyscrapers, providing year round crop production, therefore stabilising the worlds much needed food security. The project does not need the use of tractors, ploughs, shipping and other major polluters, in turn benefiting the environment from a reduction in the use of fossils fuels used for vehicles needed in traditional farming. With 80% of the earth’s population expected to reside in urban areas, the creation of vertical farms would secure a sustainable environment for citizens and there will be no or reduced need to resource crops from elsewhere.</p>
<p>This is all very well but the vertical farm project does not appear to be feasible due to high initial capital costs.  Aerospace engineer and health professor at New York University, Nathalie Jeremijenko suggests that the income created from vertical farming will not be sufficient enough to regain overall costs, for example rent in expensive cities. There are also possible risks of diseases arising from vertical farming, Fusarium and Verticullum, both of which spread fast but can be easily controlled. The question of employment is also a factor; what will happen to the farmers if we introduce an automated system? Farmers will work in vertical farms but a smaller workforce will be needed and there are also the delivery drivers to consider. However, as vertical farming will require an insect-free environment, pollination unlike traditional farming will be required to be done by hand thus new jobs will be created too. This may at first appear to be positive, but this process of pollination is a labour intensive process and could increase the cost of production, causing crop prices to rise.</p>
<p><strong>Less selection  </strong></p>
<p>Although the production of crops will be high in vertical farming, the variety of crop to choose from will be reduced because not all plants can be produce in a controlled environment. Never the less, the world can live with less variety of foods at the expense of saving the environment and sustaining food production. Another disadvantage is that it will be difficult to evenly disperse sunlight in city skyscrapers, consequently, crop production would not be reliable and so light systems would need to be installed. These systems tend to be very expensive and more research needs to be done in creating a cheaper alternative to resource lighting for buildings of this nature.</p>
<p><strong>Chicago plant</strong></p>
<p>John Edel, owner and developer of the Chicago Sustainable Manufacturing Center, wanted to prove that vertical farming is not only sustainable but profitable and replicable. So, in an area of Chicago where property was cheap, Edel created his very own vertical farm: The Plant. The Plant operates indoor grow lights that work as part of an off-grid net-zero energy system run by an anaerobic digester and a combined heat and power system. This system does not rely on evenly dispersed sunlight, so crops can be grown in all areas of the building all year round, and therefore Edel claims that this operating system could be in used in skyscrapers that will struggle with providing natural light. Another advantage for Edel is that The Plant’s system produces net-negative waste by converting waste products into energy. With such low energy and property costs, The Plant appears to be a feasible way to produce a sustainable level of food.</p>
<p><strong>12 Projects</strong></p>
<p>Vertical farming is gaining interest from commercial sources, not only domestic. Many developers are serious about building vertical plants, eco parks and eco cities. There are 12 plants being planted at present in large cities, for example Dubai, Abu Dhabi, China, Las Vegas and Pheonix. It is of real interest for desert cities to build vertical farms, as natural light is more able to spread equally around buildings. Rich Arab countries are seeing the real investment in building plants and becoming self-sufficient. Many of the Arab countries currently trade oil for food and water but they are moving towards a self-sufficient system where they can feed its cities people with city-produced food.</p>
<p>Will vertical farming ever take off? For the time being we have enough land to grow crops and feed the masses in most countries around the world. This does not mean that we should not be thinking of alternative methods. Although disputed, vertical farming is being tested as a feasible solution to future scarcities of land and resources.</p>
<p><strong> By Yasmin Greenfield Metin</strong></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
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		<title>Stop the old “bridge” metaphor; Turkey has become a new regional “hub”</title>
		<link>http://bnmagazine.co.uk/index.php/2012/03/02/stop-the-old-bridge-metaphor-turkey-has-become-a-new-regional-hub/</link>
		<comments>http://bnmagazine.co.uk/index.php/2012/03/02/stop-the-old-bridge-metaphor-turkey-has-become-a-new-regional-hub/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 02 Mar 2012 15:53:26 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Mehmet Ogutcu</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
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		<description><![CDATA[No matter how flattering the “bridge metaphor” may have been in the past, it no longer fits the reality of contemporary Turkey. To put it bluntly, today Turkey is less of a bridge and more of a dynamic regional hub in a rapidly changing world where a fundamental powershift is taking place towards Asia away from [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><span style="font-size: small;">No matter how flattering the “bridge metaphor” may have been in the past, it no longer fits the reality of contemporary Turkey.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: small;">To put it bluntly, today Turkey is less of a bridge and more of a dynamic regional hub in a rapidly changing world where a fundamental powershift is taking place towards Asia away from the West. Turkey has re-emerged as a powerful actor to fill a vacuum in its own right, deriving its strength from a $750 bn strong economy, largest military, huge cultural and historic hinterland, and an increasingly effective and trusted broker role for protracted problems in the region.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: small;">Turks also have redefined their strategic interests and are not happy at all to be treated in a patron-client relationship. Our suggestion is that Western officials should accept this new reality not as a challenge but as a positive development. If they stop treating Turkey as a biddable client providing useful transit services, as implied by the bridge metaphor and instead recognize Turkey’s autonomous status and far-reaching national interests, a far healthier basis for future relations between Turkey and its Western allies will emerge.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: small;">One way or another, a resurgent Turkey is rewriting the rules of the power game in the Middle East, Eurasia and South East Europe. It is doing so in a positive and non-confrontational manner that, when seen through this new “hub” lens, accords well with Western interests in the troubled regional geography in which Turkey lies at the centre.  </span></p>
<p><strong><span style="font-size: small;">New foreign policy approach…</span></strong></p>
<p><span style="font-size: small;">The signature policy of Turkey’s new self-confidence is the policy of “zero problems with neighbours.” This marks a revolutionary change from the “siege mentality” that promoted the paranoiac view that Turkey was surrounded by enemy countries.  One after another initiative has been launched to pave the ground for the settlement of most historically deep-seated and complex problems.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: small;">In this context, Turkey and Armenia, two historic enemies, broke new ground in October by signing protocols, providing for the restoration of diplomatic relations and the opening of the long-closed border between them. If borders are not reopened by April 2010, it seems certain that the Turkish-American partnership could possibly be dealt with another blow due to the long-standing proposed “Armenian genocide” bill.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: small;"> </span><span style="font-size: small;">Iran remains a single most important item on Turkey’s plate. Erdoğan’s recent visit to Tehran resulted in new projects to increase the existing $11 billion trade volume up to $30 billion over the next few years. There was talk of Turkey brokering a deal with Iran on nuclear matters including storage of enriched uranium on the Turkish soil. Joint exploration and production of natural gas, trade in local currencies, the establishment of an industrial border area and a joint airline are also among the points agreed upon to boost economic co-operation between the two neighbours. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: small;"> </span><span style="font-size: small;">Two other visits this past October may serve to more vividly illustrate Turkey’s activist foreign policy. Prime Minister Erdogan, accompanied by nine ministers and an Airbus full of businessmen, visited Baghdad, where he held a joint session with the Iraq government and signed no fewer than 48 memoranda in the fields of commerce, energy, water, security, forestry, the environment and so forth. At much the same time, Foreign Minister Davutoglu was in Aleppo where he signed another 40 agreements.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: small;"> </span><span style="font-size: small;">These developments have been balanced by some loosening in Ankara’s traditionally close ties to Tel Aviv.  Turkey has closed its airspace to Israeli military training. However, the 24 November visit to Ankara by the Israeli Minister of Industry, Trade and Labour Binyamin &#8220;Fuad&#8221; Ben Eliezer demonstrated that both sides are minded to repair their mutual relations.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: small;"> </span><span style="font-size: small;">In the wake of Turkey’s accelerating regional engagement, the EU accession process enjoys less priority, partly due to the particularly unwelcoming approach under the Sarkozy presidency and the Cyprus problem still staying as a stumbling block. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: small;"> </span><span style="font-size: small;">In fact, Turkey’s accession story is like an unfinished symphony, started almost half a century ago and yet to be finalised. Turks tend to see EU policy as evasive and full of double standards, with many promises going unfulfilled.  This has cost Brussels a serious loss of credibility in the eyes of most Turks, even those who are fervently pro-European. Turkey has certainly not lost its European vocation, but this will have to be adjusted to fit the new circumstances. On Cyprus, for example, Ankara made it clear that if a choice has to be made at the end of this year between Cyprus and EU membership it would be undoubtedly Cyprus.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: small;"> </span><strong><span style="font-size: small;">Russian opportunity in a crowded chessboard</span></strong></p>
<p><span style="font-size: small;"> </span><span style="font-size: small;">Energy has a pivotal role in shaping Turkey’s regional role as the country, a major consumer of energy in its own, is also key to linking oil and gas producers in Russia, Caspian, Central Asia and the Middle East with energy-hungry markets in Europe. Yet, Turks are not content for being a simple “bridge” over which energy flows only; they aspire to become a regional “hub” extracting greater value for the criss-crossing oil, gas pipelines and power interconnections.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: small;"> </span><span style="font-size: small;">Unlike the West, Russia seems to have adjusted much earlier to this new geopolitical game. Seizing the opportunity created by Ankara&#8217;s growing frustration with the EU and the US, Russian Prime Minister Putin travelled to Turkey on 6 August with his basket of tempting strategic and economic proposals immediately after a similar Nabucco agreement mission in July 2009 by his EU opponents.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: small;"> </span><span style="font-size: small;">The Russian visit has generated a series of unprecedented commercial and energy contracts worth $40 billion that will support Turkey&#8217;s drive to become a regional hub for fuel transshipments while helping Moscow maintain its preferred partner status on natural gas shipments from Asia to Europe.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: small;"> </span><span style="font-size: small;">There are heightened fears in several capitals about Turkey becoming too cozy with Moscow at the expense of overriding some Western energy and strategic interests, with possible security ramifications in the long run.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: small;"> </span><strong><span style="font-size: small;">Turks look after their own interests</span></strong></p>
<p><span style="font-size: small;"> </span><span style="font-size: small;">Let&#8217;s not jump into an easy conclusion that what Turkey has been doing systemically since 2002 in this most difficult part of the world is a simple drifting away from the west and embracing the &#8220;rogue&#8221; and “anti-western” nations at the expense of its historical western vocation. It is also too early to judge Turkey’s multi-vectoral drives as successful. Indeed, far from looking for a life without them, Turkey is looking for an upgraded relationship with the US and the EU. Turkey can hardly expand its influence without first having a firm footage in the west.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: small;"> </span><span style="font-size: small;">Turkey is the only country in the world which can simultanoeusly talk in a spirit of trust and partnership to Tehran, Baghdad, Damascus, Riyad, Tel Aviv, Moscow, Baku and Erivan, as well as enjoying diaogue with most radical groups in Lebanon, Palestine, Iraq and Afghanistan. Hence,Ankara stands at a historic juncture and possesses the ability to shape politics beyond its borders if it pays attention to the two following parameters: maintain its newfound global role only by building international constituencies and prove that its heart beats for Muslims and non-Muslims, and Turks and non-Turks, with the same strength.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: small;"> </span><span style="font-size: small;">The current Turkish behavior is shaped by the shifts in the country’s international identity and the changes in Turkey’s vision of its new geopolitical role. These, in turn, are the result of powerful processes that are reshaping the socio-political life of the country. These processes are the economic development in the Anatolian hinterland, the broadening of the elite through the emergence of the new ambitious provincial social actors, who are economically dynamic and culturally conservative, and the increasing role of elected officials and thus a stronger government. None of these dynamics need be seen as detrimental to Western interests.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: small;"> </span><strong><span style="font-size: small;">Turkish version of the German <em>Ostpolitik</em></span></strong></p>
<p><span style="font-size: small;"> </span><span style="font-size: small;">In revisiting the “Turkey dossier”, the first step for Western policy makers will therefore be to back away from the past where Turkey was seen as the “Sick Man of Europe” or a “loyal ally” of the west on the outer margins of the EU, NATO or Asia. A more constructive image is to view Turkey as being located in the very heart of Eurasia and now working free from the post-Ottoman cliché of &#8220;modernization.&#8221;</span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: small;">Turkey&#8217;s respected and non-confrontational rise in that volatile, troubled region that is increasingly peaceful, with countries co-operating with one another is good for the West and the world. This is an exceptional and unique role Turkey could play as a regional “hub”, rather than a “bridge”.  This is what Washington and Brussels should be supporting wholeheartedly, rather than getting worried about.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: small;"> </span><span style="font-size: small;">In effect, what we are witnessing today is the emergence of a Turkish version of the German <em>Ostpolitik</em>of the 1960s – with just the same potential for positive outreach into a troubled region.  </span></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>by Mehmet Öğütçü and Jonathan Clarke</p>
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		<title>Erdogan’s legacy for Turkey in his final term</title>
		<link>http://bnmagazine.co.uk/index.php/2012/03/02/erdogans-legacy-for-turkey-in-his-final-term/</link>
		<comments>http://bnmagazine.co.uk/index.php/2012/03/02/erdogans-legacy-for-turkey-in-his-final-term/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 02 Mar 2012 13:05:12 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Mehmet Ogutcu</dc:creator>
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		<description><![CDATA[Turkey’s 17th general election was never an election about who would win; it was a foregone conclusion that the Justice and Development Party (AK Party) would do that and that Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, in his final term as prime minister, would be given not only the mandate to govern but also the moral authority to [...]]]></description>
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<td colspan="2"><span>Turkey’s 17th general election was never an election about who would win; it was a foregone conclusion that the Justice and Development Party (AK Party) would do that and that Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, in his final term as prime minister, would be given not only the mandate to govern but also the moral authority to forge Turkey’s future in the next four years and, arguably, beyond.</span></td>
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<td colspan="2">But actual votes mattered, too. Would the AK Party’s majority be so large that it could change the constitution unilaterally? Or, failing that, big enough to put constitutional proposals to a referendum without horse-trading with other parties represented in Parliament?As things turned out, the AK Party won slightly less than 50 percent of the vote, but fewer seats than in the last Parliament and not enough to change the constitution without cooperation from other parliamentarians. The main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) won 24 more seats than it did in 2007, reflecting some new political relevance under Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, but this was a modest advance which may not be enough to prevent further unrest in the party.The Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) squeaked into Parliament with 13 percent of the vote and 56 seats, 15 fewer than in 2007 but enough to ensure that strong nationalism will be represented in Parliament and not just on the street &#8212; not necessarily a bad thing. Most importantly, the pro-Kurdish Peace and Democracy Party (BDP) gained ground from the AK Party on independent tickets in the Southeast, returning 36 deputies with very diverse political identities, including two in İstanbul. This was a clear reflection of regional disillusion with the last government’s failure to make good on its promise of a “Kurdish opening.”Now that election fever is over, what matters is the quality and urgency of the solutions that Erdoğan brings to the issues to be tackled and how far he and the other political leaders, all well dug in to their political trenches, are prepared to work together to find solutions. Mr. Erdoğan’s support is built on his success in creating a booming economy and ending decades of chaotic coalitions, military coups and failed international financial bailouts.Foreign investors have traditionally seen the AK Party as the most market-friendly party. But they have also increasingly come to recognize that all is not well with the Turkish polity and that future Turkish success will depend on finding solutions to the major problems which now confront Turkish politics, society and, yes, even the economy.Among many foreigners there is a bit of over-simplification about the AK Party government, namely that it has an agenda to “Islamize” the country. It is, of course, true that a majority of Turks are devout and conservative. Their stake in the country’s governance, since 2001 represented by the AK Party, has steadily become more influential, to the dismay of the old secularist establishment. The AK Party both reflects their devout and conservative attitudes and exploits these to ensure its political dominance. But that doesn’t mean the return of Shariah.What does matter, however, is that the Turkish political process is one in which the government has appeared increasingly intolerant of opposition and criticism and focused on narrow political advantage. Opponents point to the rampant use of wiretaps by state agencies, the government’s handling of the Ergenekon case and other scandals involving the “deep state,” the detention of large numbers of journalists critical of the government, and nepotism. The news on June 14 about the Turkish police arresting 32 members of the “Anonymous” collective seems to be connected with the government’s intention to introduce a filter system for access to the Internet for all Turks in August.</p>
<p>Besides, the AK Party, like previous Turkish governments, has become steadily more clientelist in its conduct of government. AK Party supporters assume positions of influence. Companies run by AK Party sympathizers get big government contracts. The stakes involved in this have become much higher than in the past because of the great success of the Turkish economy. This has reinforced the serious polarization of Turkish society.</p>
<p>Erdoğan’s critics point to his authoritarian streak. They fear he will use his growing power to switch to a more presidential system of government, with an eye on becoming president himself in the years ahead.</p>
<p><strong>Balcony diplomacy</strong></p>
<p>In his traditional “balcony speech,” Mr. Erdoğan asked explicitly for forgiveness from all political rivals and individuals he might inadvertently have hurt during his campaign. He ordered his party to “adopt a posture of humility and servility.” He promised to open a new, clean page on Monday.</p>
<p>As a top priority, he promised to rewrite a civilian constitution in consultation with opposition parties. EU-oriented reforms over the past decade have already changed about one-third of the 1982 Constitution, drawn up under military rule. The AK Party has promised a whole new text. For it to stick, it must be the product of a genuine consensus, including the Kurdish national movement, not a top-down imposition.</p>
<p>Mr. Erdoğan also assured his audience that that the mega-projects he unveiled during the campaign would commence immediately. The election campaign had witnessed promises of new cities, high-speed trains domestically and reaching as far as Mecca and Xian, suspension bridges, airports, tax holidays, a “crazy” grand canal parallel to the Bosporus waterway and iPads for all.</p>
<p>One can justifiably be skeptical about Mr. Erdoğan’s balcony promises, which, he may abandon within a few weeks if he remains true to his form in 2002 and 2007. Based on those precedents, a period of confrontation lies ahead, and consensus appears difficult in the short term. The issue of a new constitution is likely to polarize the political arena, as the opposition remains fearful of AK Party attempts to engineer permanent control over the system.</p>
<p>Mr. Erdoğan says the new charter will be based on democratic and pluralistic principles that will bring Turkey closer to EU standards. Besides, as we’ve said, the AK Party is short of the so-called “referendum majority.” While this does not imply that the government is about to delay constitutional reform, it necessitates dialogue with CHP and MHP as well as independent members of Parliament. This seems to be exactly what the Turkish electorate had in mind.</p>
<p>So, this time, in his final term, we hope that a combination of the new parliamentary numbers and recognition of what they mean in terms of popular attitudes, together with a desire to leave an enduringly positive legacy as prime minister, will lead Erdoğan to compromise on the scale of his presidential ambition and to address in tolerant fashion the questions that divide Turks so bitterly and increasingly lead outside observers, like us, to fear for Turkey’s future successful development.</p>
<p><strong>Accommodation with Kurds</strong></p>
<p>The situation in the Southeast is one reason a new constitution cannot be delayed. Abdullah Öcalan, the jailed leader of militant Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), has threatened a “big war” if the government failed to begin serious talks soon after the election. The electoral gains made by Kurdish independents were a message to Erdoğan to engage more fully after his failure to follow through on his initiative to grant Kurds more rights two years ago.</p>
<p>However, Mr. Erdoğan may not want to be seen to be bowing to pressure from Öcalan. This means that Turkey is likely to experience unrelenting waves of civil disobedience or even large-scale PKK attacks unless Mr. Erdoğan initiates the process of drafting the new constitution. This promises a very hot summer for Turkey, and the new government should find ways of calming the tension by serious engagement rather than paying lip service.</p>
<p>Is it too much to hope that the BDP, or at least some members of it, might be prepared to signal that they would support constitutional change in Parliament, granted that the drafting of the constitution meets their aspirations, as well as those of the great majority of Turks?</p>
<p><strong>Economy comes first</strong></p>
<p>Having built a reputation for ending Turkey’s financial meltdowns of the past and making it one of the world’s fastest growing emerging markets, the government needs to make sure that this success continues. Youth unemployment is high in a country where the average age is 28. High gross domestic product (GDP) growth has been driven largely by domestic demand, and inflation is starting to grow. The big current account deficit (CAD) requires the careful macro-management of an economy that is now overheating.</p>
<p>Unlike the financial storms threatening the eurozone and China, glitches in the Turkish economy can be overcome swiftly if appropriate measures are enacted without delay. Specifically, the Central Bank of Turkey needs to adopt a more orthodox strategy by raising interest rates, and the government needs to pitch in with fiscal tightening. The question is whether Mr. Erdoğan, with the election won, will feel able to undertake the level of economic belt-tightening the situation now demands.</p>
<p>Then, what about external challenges, inextricably linked to the domestic agenda, that the new government will likely face? Ahmet Davutoğlu seems likely to be reappointed foreign minister. Will he continue to pursue his far-reaching strategies, not just regionally, but also globally &#8212; sometimes indeed reaching beyond Turkey’s effective grip? Will Turkey’s increasing confidence and economic strength lead it to set its own rules and play according to these, rather than the rules set in Washington, D.C., or European capitals?</p>
<p><strong>Arab Spring: normalized relations with Israel and Armenia</strong></p>
<p>The upheavals in the Arab world have certainly set back Turkey’s hopes of rapid progress to a more stable, prosperous neighborhood. The most pressing crisis is now thousands of refugees fleeing to Turkey to escape a bloody crackdown by Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. Having embraced Assad as a friend and urged him to make reforms, Erdoğan is now confronted with a Syrian government that uses merciless force against its own people. The prospects for the Syrian people and the implications for Turkey seem grave, indeed.</p>
<p>But it does not follow that Ankara’s “zero problems with neighbors” policy was mistaken. Turkey’s new relationships with its Arab neighbors were established with governments which have now lost power and credibility, and Turkey’s difficulties in resetting its relations, for example with the opposition in Libya, are plain. But Turkey is no different from Western governments in this respect, and Turkey’s new relationships with people in Arab countries go deeper than the government level.</p>
<p>We believe that Turkey is capable of managing the transition and of resuming its regional role with the successor administrations there. A bigger challenge for Turkey in the Middle East is to resist inclusion in the dangerous trend for major regional powers, such as Iran and Saudi Arabia, to assume the role of patrons of Arab Sunni or Shiite states, with the consequential risk of destabilization and confrontation in the region.</p>
<p>Ankara should stick to its “zero problems” approach: A better-governed, more interdependent region with more efficient borders, integrated infrastructure, visa-free travel and free trade is in its interests and those of its Western friends. This applies not just to the Arab countries; Turkey should seek opportunities to normalize relations with Israel, through a mutually satisfactory arrangement rather than the inconclusive blame game going on, and Armenia, recognizing that its international leverage is most effective when it has productive ties with all parties in the region. Recent talks between Baku and Yerevan have generated hope that Ankara may no longer be held hostage to their protracted confrontation.</p>
<p><strong>Reluctance or re-engagement with the EU?</strong></p>
<p>The EU’s internal divisions and some European politicians’ hostility to Turks joining the club have done much to harm the EU’s appeal among Turks. Support for EU membership is declining, and many people question why a dynamic Turkey would want to enter a union plagued by debt and slow growth and get into a strait jacket while it can pursue its own regional ambitions. The obstructions by France, Germany and Austria are viewed by some politicians as a blessing allowing Turkey to develop its own geo-economic space and assert its national pride and identity.</p>
<p>No wonder the EU issue was totally absent from Mr. Erdoğan’s campaign speeches. It only appears on the 151st sheet of his 160-page election program, where the “unfair and unfounded opposition” of certain EU countries is strongly condemned. The EU accession process is now hanging by a thread, since there are almost no negotiating chapters left to open.</p>
<p>The loss of momentum in the development of the EU/Turkey relationship is concerning. There is no doubt that the EU’s soft power was responsible for major reform in Turkey. That has now been lost. The Europeans have turned inward, absorbed by the economic crisis facing the eurozone, and many Turks make simplistic comparisons between Turkish and European growth rates and conclude that Turkey will be better off on its own.</p>
<p>Both are mistaken. Turkish economic and political development will best be secured by revitalization of the accession process. Europe, too, will be strengthened and renewed by what Turkey has to offer in terms of political and security reach, regional stability, demography and diversity.</p>
<p>The new government must actively find a way to get lifeblood back into the relationship. It is already committed to creating a new Ministry of European Union Affairs, but we should not expect Ankara to tango on its own. Both sides should recognize that both Turkey and Europe are changing and that the global economic and political tectonic plates are shifting, not necessarily to the advantage of the EU. New approaches are needed to overcome deep-seated problems and to put a future EU-Turkey partnership on a healthier foundation.</p>
<p>On Cyprus, a mutual absence of trust between Ankara and Nicosia is the single biggest obstacle to reunification of the island, and it seems unlikely that the EU will be able to broker a breakthrough, given the unwillingness of other member states to confront Cypriot intransigence. There’s no need to tell the Turkish government that this situation is a major reason for the paralysis in Turkey’s accession negotiations.</p>
<p>Given the lack of communication between Turkey and the Greek Cypriots, one possibility that has recently been suggested by the International Crisis Group is an international conference to initiate a process that includes the four main (albeit asymmetrical) parties to the history of the Cyprus dispute: Greek Cypriots, Turkish Cypriots, Turkey and Greece. This could be led by the UN and include representation from the EU. It should focus on addressing difficult issues such as security, implementation and guarantees.</p>
<p><strong>Greater consensus and tolerance needed</strong></p>
<p>We are cautiously optimistic about what the election results portend for Turkey. It is true that even if the number of AK Party seats has been slightly trimmed, its political dominance remains overwhelming. So the challenge for Prime Minister Erdoğan, which lies in reaching out to all Turks instead of burnishing a relationship of mutual advantage with his followers, is, after a third electoral victory, perhaps more difficult than ever.</p>
<p>However, the result failed to give the AK Party the number of seats necessary to decide Turkey’s constitutional future without consulting others. It demonstrated that the problems of the Southeast cannot be solved without policies that go to the heart of Kurdish concerns and involve the BDP. It showed that the CHP cannot be written off. All these outcomes should lead the AK Party leadership to reflect on seeking consensus and tolerance.</p>
<p>We hope that the government will seek greater consensus and reach out to a wider group of stakeholders for a more inclusive approach to the solution of Turkey’s problems than it demonstrated during its second term. The outstanding question now is whether the AK Party will perpetuate the pattern of advancing its own preferences at the expense of others in Turkey’s deeply divided polity, or instead adopt the path of seeking consensus. The opposition parties will also have to decide that they have an important part to play in bridging the divisions in Turkish society and play the political game more constructively.</p>
<p>And we hope that Western Europeans will not leave the field to the toxic co-conspiracy of European and Turkish opponents of Turkey’s democratic, European future but remember that they, too, have an important stake in the full development of Turkish democracy and stability and that they share a common destiny with Turkey within the EU.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p><em>by</em> <strong>David Logan &amp; Mehmet Öğütçü</strong></td>
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